Bangladesh’s ‘new chapter’: Islamist forces will reign supreme, with India as their prime target

Opinion

By Dr. Abhinav Pandya 

Sheikh Hasina’s ouster and the consequent regime change in Bangladesh come out as another geopolitical shake-up in a series of tremors upsetting the existing world order. Bangladesh, a rare example of an Islamic nation with vibrant democracy and a burgeoning economy, falls flat and surrenders to Islamist forces led by the Jamaat-e-Islami, an Islamic extremist organisation with proven links to terrorist groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Undoubtedly, the drama that unfolded in Dhaka has global ramifications with several foreign players involved; however, a country that is going to feel the most pronounced impact will certainly be India.

India shares a 4,000-kilometre-long land boundary with Bangladesh. Bangladesh is India’s largest trade partner in South Asia, and India is Bangladesh’s second largest trade partner in Asia. With its crucial role in the formation of Bangladesh as an independent nation in 1971, India has always been a key factor in Bangladesh’s internal and external policies since 1971. Mujib’s family enjoyed personal warmth and family ties with the Gandhi family in India. After the assassination of Mujib and his 18 family members, Indian PM Indira Gandhi offered security and shelter to Sheikh Hasina and her family, who were in West Germany then. The ousted PM Sheikh Hasina spent six years in exile in Delhi.

In return, Mujib and his daughter remained firm supporters of India, and this equation further strengthened under the Narendra Modi government. However, the bilateral ties have not always been smooth and cordial. New Delhi has had its own share of troubles with Bangladesh, ranging from illegal immigration and boundary issues to anti-India terrorist activities. Nevertheless, the Sheikh Hasina government was always a preferable choice for New Delhi to guard and promote its interests in Bangladesh. Over the last 15 years of the Hasina government, India emerged as a robust strategic, economic, and development partner of Bangladesh.

Dark Future for India’s Interests

The recent geopolitical upheaval in Bangladesh will be severely detrimental to India’s security and economic interests vis-à-vis Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina was the last secular leader standing between Islamist radicals and secular democracy in Bangladesh. The biggest danger that India confronts with her ouster is the rise of Islamic extremist forces and their overwhelming sway over the state and society in Bangladesh. Not that under Hasina, Bangladesh was an epitome of secularism. It was already under the heavy undercurrents of extremist forces. The spread of Da’esh was evident in the attack on the Gulshan bakery in the diplomatic enclave in 2016. The incidents of radical Islamists killing secular bloggers are well known. However, Hasina was well aware of the menace of fast-spreading Islamic extremism, and she dealt with it firmly and ruthlessly. Now in the Hasinaless Bangladesh, the extremist forces will be unchecked, riding roughshod over the state machinery and society.

It is a known fact that in the recent anti-government protests, the banned extremist outfit Jamaat-i-Islami and its ally Bangladesh National Party played an instrumental role. The Jamaat cadres were the leading force mobilising the violent crowds in the streets. After Hasina’s ouster, Jamaat opened its public office after more than a decade of being shut, and its chief Shafiq-ur-Rehman attended the meeting with the Army Chief Waker-us-Zaman to decide upon the formation of the interim government. On August 27, the interim government led by Nobel laureate Mohammad Yunus removed the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami and released jailed Islamist leaders. Further, the leader of the largest Islamist group, Hifazat-e-Islam, AFM Khalid Hussain, has been appointed in the interim government. These events sufficiently indicate that Jamaat-i-Islami and its allies will be the principal players in the future.

Notably, Jamaat-i-Islami is an extremist organisation that supported the Pakistani army during the Bangladesh liberation war of 1971. It believes in fundamentalist Islamic thinker Maududi’s ideology of political Islam and is akin to the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt. Its final aim is the establishment of Taliban-styled sharia rule in Bangladesh. Reportedly, JI cadres were complicit with the Pakistani army in the mass slaughter, rapes, and torture of locals, mostly Hindus of Bangladesh. JI’s top six leaders have been executed for heinous war crimes. Jamaat has proven links with Deobandi terrorist groups of Pakistan, such as Harkat-ul-Jihad al Islami (HuJI). Its cadres have participated in terrorist operations and training in Afghanistan with HuJI.

When Jamaat and its key ally BNP were in power in Bangladesh from 2001-2006, India had a tough time dealing with Pakistan-backed terrorists. There was a large-scale infiltration of Pakistani terrorists into the Indian territory from Bangladesh. Earlier, when BNP leader Khalida Zia served as the PM of Bangladesh between 1991 and 1996, some of the most dreaded terrorist commanders, such as Maulana Masood Azhar and Sajjad Afghani, infiltrated into India via Bangladesh. For the Deobandi groups like Harkat-ul-Mujahiddin, the Bangladesh route was one of the most convenient ones to enter India. The ISI had cultivated a robust base in Bangladesh, with a string of agents, sleeper cells, and proxy actors. Jamaat was the most powerful ISI proxy in Bangladesh. It is well known that during the 1990s and early 2000s, Pakistan orchestrated many big-ticket terrorist attacks in India. Also, the terrorist groups of the North East, like the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), found safe havens in Bangladesh.

The ISI was training and funding them. However, the Sheikh Hasina government extended full cooperation to Indian authorities in neutralising and arresting the terrorist elements escaping to Bangladesh. Unlike in the Sheikh Hasina regime, the Indian government is less likely to receive such cooperation and support from the future Jamaat/BNP political players. ISI-supported terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba had cultivated strong bases and sleeper cells in Bangladesh. In Chittagong, they were radicalising the Rohingya refugees. With BNP/Jamaat back in power, the ISI will have much stronger control and penetration in Bangladesh, which imposes a direct terrorist threat to India.

The powerful presence of radical Islamists will bring the worst times for the Hindu minority in Bangladesh. After Hasina’s ouster, Jamaat cadres and protestors have attacked several Hindu houses and temples, killed Hindu men, and raped their women. The gory images coming from Bangladesh have sent shock waves across the length and breadth of India, generating strong resentment and hatred towards Bangladesh. In the future, if these persecuted minorities immigrate to India, it will add more weight to the tensions between New Delhi and Dhaka.

India faces a major challenge of illegal immigration from Bangladesh. Massive influx of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants and Rohingyas via Bangladesh has resulted in major changes in the demography of several districts in Assam and West Bengal, the two states bordering Bangladesh. Reportedly, the extremist and terrorist elements have strong penetration among these illegal immigrants. Settling of the illegal immigrants in the chicken neck corridor, the narrow strip that connects India with its North East, has raised alarming security concerns for India.

With the potential revival of BNP/Jamaat governments, the problem of illegal immigration and human trafficking can metamorphose into serious frictions and major security threats for India. The anti-India Islamic radicals and extremist elements have established bases in that corridor. With the ISI-supported political system back in power in Bangladesh, this problem becomes more alarming.

Accentuating these concerns are the rising trends in Islamic extremism and communal polarisation in India over the last ten years of the Modi government. Indian agencies have busted Islamic State-Khorasan Province modules in various parts of the country. A strong radical foothold in Bangladesh makes it easier for Pakistan to network with Islamic extremists in the Indian hinterland through northeastern India, infiltrate cadres, and create security threats for India. On account of the rising Hindu nationalism in India, the collective national sentiments against Islamic extremism are very harsh, and in the light of ongoing atrocities against Hindus in Bangladesh, they are likely to get worse. That said, the bilateral relations will go for a toss.

The regime change in Bangladesh provides China with ample opportunities to pressure India by tightening its noose in the North Eastern region. In the past, China has allegedly funded rebels and militants in the disturbed northeastern states of India. After the Galwan clash in 2020, the bilateral relations between Delhi and Beijing are going through a tough phase. With intransigence on both sides, the boundary dialogue has reached a stalemate. Hence, in such a scenario, China is likely to leverage the anti-India regime in Bangladesh to its advantage. Also, China’s all-weather friend and India’s arch-enemy Pakistan will have a stronger foothold in Bangladesh, which is going to make things much smoother for China.

A hostile regime in Dhaka will not be conducive to India’s deep-sea drilling projects in the Bay of Bengal. The oil and gas exploration in the Bay of Bengal region can play a crucial role in reducing India’s dependence on oil imports. India is the world’s third-largest oil and gas importer. Before the Ukraine war, it imported most of its crude oil from West Asia; however, after the Ukraine war, India has been buying subsidised Russian oil. Today, Russia has the largest share of India’s oil imports, ie, 40 per cent.

If India successfully exploits hydrocarbon reserves in the Bay of Bengal region, it will be a breakthrough development for India’s economic growth. Namit Verma, a veteran intelligence and security analyst, in an interview with an India-based thinktank, informed that deep-sea drilling in the Bay of Bengal region has been a bone of contention between India and the US.

He further suggested that in the 1971 war, the US blatantly supported Pakistan by sending its 7th fleet to the Bay of Bengal region to ensure that India gets defeated. The objective was to stop India from deep-sea drilling in the region. However, in those days, despite winning the 1971 war, India chose not to start those projects because of the pressure from the US and the lack of technology. However, today India is in a much stronger position geopolitically and technologically to explore deep-sea drilling in the region. As of now, the Shwe gas project off the Myanmar Coast, jointly developed by POSCO DAEWOO Corporation, ONGC Videsh Ltd, GAIL, and Korean Gas Company, is in its second and third phases. However, a stronger foothold of India’s adversaries in Bangladesh, in the future, increases the chances of sabotage to Shew gas project.

Conclusion

It can be argued that regime change in Bangladesh is, in many ways, a colossal intelligence failure for India. In the past, India lost Nepal with such a regime change. The new communist government that came after deposing the monarchy has not been as loyal to India as the monarchs. Lately, in its neighbourhood, China has made significant inroads in most of the countries, including Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Maldives. Besides, one also comes across the genuine anti-India sentiment in these countries. In Bangladesh, due to Hasina’s close friendship with India, there is strong anti-India sentiment. Hence, it will be extremely challenging for India to find synergies with the new political players in Bangladesh.

For Bangladesh, history has come full circle. The man who liberated Bangladesh from the Islamist tyranny of Pakistan and established a secular republic, Sheikh Mujib-ur-Rehman, popularly known as Bangbandhu (friend of Bengalis), is a reviled and abused figure now. Violent protestors are demolishing his statues, and with this, his secular legacy comes to a dead end. Now begins a new chapter in Bangladesh where Islamist forces will reign supreme. It is pertinent to mention that such catastrophic changes can hardly happen without the backing of powerful foreign forces. However, their shortsighted approach has brought elements who believe in the ideology of Al Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood, and Islamic States to power. Soon these elements will invade the streets of their foreign supporters, unleashing the destruction that many countries in Europe are witnessing already.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint. The article was first published in Firstpost.