Demographic Transformation in Assam: History, Politics and Identity

May 7, 2025 - 09:42 Updated: May 7, 2025 - 09:52

Demographic Transformation in Assam: History, Politics and Identity

Analysis

By Maxim Sinha

Assam holds considerable significance in the historical, political, geographical, and cultural contexts of India. The human population of this state interacts with and leverages its diverse attributes, thereby influencing its future trajectory. While individuals residing outside the Northeast may primarily regard Assam as a hub for tea production, the state encompasses far more complexities. The value of a region often correlates with the number of challenges it faces; hence, significance and threat have historically coexisted in Assam's narrative. This observation contributes to my perception that enduring experiences in Assam are elusive. Although the state possesses a rich and ancient history, this discussion will focus on the later medieval period, as it aligns more closely with the objectives of this paper. It is essential to acknowledge that the map and territorial boundaries of Assam have evolved over time. The contemporary territory of Assam differs significantly from that which existed during the pre-independence era. Furthermore, the state's ethnic and linguistic diversity remains among the highest in the country, reflecting the Northeast's renowned heterogeneity.

GEOGRAPHY OF ASSAM: - As I mentioned earlier that Assam’s territory has always been fluctuating rampantly since ancient times. Hence, for the sake of my paper, I will start from the 20^th century onwards. Since the beginning of the 20^th century, Assam’s political boundary has been changing in different directions due to various reasons. But there is a quirky behaviour of the native people. The natives neither bothered about the political boundaries nor followed the government dictums. Their concept of territory was more ethno-linguistic than political or religious. This conception of the state persisted till the 1980s, at least among the rural people, if not the suburbs. The geographical posture of Assam made it vulnerable to various human security threats. At present, Assam shares a 263km long border with Bangladesh with districts like Sribhumi (erstwhile Karimganj), Cachar and Dhubri. After the unprecedented partition of 1905(Bengal Partition) and 1947(Indo-Pak), this border line serves as a Pandora’s box, just as the mischievous political leaders of the state. It should be kept in mind that people of South Assam (Barak Valley) associate them more with Eastern Bangladesh than with the Brahmaputra Valley. It is because of historical ties, which I shall be discussing in the later part.

HISTORY OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IN ASSAM: - History of Assam is very much linked with Bangladesh (erstwhile East Bengal and then East Pakistan). So far, demographic distribution is concerned, it all began from the later half of the 19^th century when an unreported partition took place in the year 1874. This partition was neither accepted by the people of Sylhet nor by the Assamese. The situation started worsening when the partition of Bengal took place in the year 1905-11. These two incidents served as the seedlings of demographic mayhem. The partition of India was an eye-opening event for the political dispensation. As I mentioned earlier that people belonging to the south of Assam are found to be more associated with the present-day Bangladesh than the rest of Assam. The reason is a linguistic knot. South Assam, also known as Barak Valley, is a Bengali-speaking area. Till 1971, people used to travel without much worry across the border. It is still happening, but the frequency, intention and level of convenience have changed a lot. For the convenience of studying the immigration process, I will be dividing the history of Assam into three phases.

Pre-1947: Ever since 1905, Assam has been in the eye of East Bengal. In 1905, the Muslim League demanded ‘’Bange-Islam’’, merging sparsely populated Assam with heavily populated Muslim majority East Bengal. Mass migration from East Bengal into Assam continued. In the 1931 Assam Census report, the British census superintendent expressed grave concern over Assamese people getting engulfed by this influx. During the 2^nd World War, CM of Assam Sir Md. Sadaullah gave a fillip to this influx. Lord Wavell, the then Viceroy of India, wrote in a journal that in the name of ‘’Grow more food’’, Sadaullah was “Growing more Muslims”. During a visit to Guwahati in 1946, Jinnah confidently declared that he had Assam in his pocket. Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, in his book “Myth of Independence”, asserts that the dispute between India and Pakistan isn’t just about Kashmir but also some districts of Assam adjacent to East Pakistan. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman also wanted Assam to be a part of East Pakistan. The reason is that Assam is rich in minerals and forest resources.
1947-71: - After the signing of the Nehru-Liaquat Pact, the situation didn’t change to a considerable extent. Hindus of East Pakistan kept on flooding into Assam and West Bengal due to heinous discriminatory activities. The political dispensation of Assam was more interested in other petty affairs than tackling this serious human security problem, except for BP Chaliha. The then CM of Assam, BP Chaliha, was one of those rare politicians who took this illegal immigration seriously to the center, but his higher command preferred to sideline the issue. Because the Congress party of Assam relied heavily on the votes of illegal immigrants, hence, they preferred not to disturb the mood of the illegal immigrants, totally being oblivious to the security of Assam. It is only after the military dictatorship in Pakistan and the launch of Op. The Searchlight government of Assam took the issue seriously. But all were like the yuletide wave of Christmas, which comes on the eve of Christmas Day and goes by Boxing Day. Though the 1962 Mongoldoi election was an icebreaking moment for the masses, but not for the political establishment.

1971-Present day: - After the momentous liberation of Bangladesh, India thought that this immigration would cease to continue, but Islamic fundamentalists operating on the other side of the fence didn’t allow our dreams to be a reality. In 1992, the then CM of Assam, Hiteshwar Saikia, stated that there were 3 million illegal immigrants in Assam. The same statement was echoed by the then Home Minister of India, Indrajit Gupta, in the parliament in the year 1997. This entire process took a fast pace when Lt. Gen. (Retd.) SK Sinha was appointed as the Governor of Assam in 1998. He was briefed by his former subordinate and then Eastern Army Commander Lt.Gen Jameel Mehmood regarding the demographic change in Bengal and Assam. Lt. Gen. Jameel Mehmood went on to say that if this situation persists, then soon Assam will become Kashmir. All reports were sidelined under the vicious political nexus.

CURRENT SCENARIO AND WAY FORWARD: - The Situation can be understood properly if we go by the census data released by the government of India. The westernmost district of Assam, named Dhubri, is presently a Muslim dominated district, whereas 100 years ago it was a province under the reign of Koch Rajbangshi. At present, Muslims hold 70% of the total population. Illegal immigration is the main source of such a demographic shift. AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front), a regional political party of Assam, is headed by Badaruddin Ajmal, who has been charged multiple times for being instrumental in bringing illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. India’s first CDS, Bipin Rawat, raised this issue during his tenure as the Chief of Army Staff. For a better understanding of the matter, I would refer to the report prepared by the former Governor of Assam, Lt.Gen.(Retd.) SK Sinha, which he sent to the President of India, Mr. K.R. Narayanan. There, he mentioned the changing demographics of Assam due to illegal immigration. At present, there are 11 districts with a Muslim majority, and 5 are following the row. Right after independence, there were hardly 4-5 districts with a majority Muslim population. This sudden growth isn’t natural; it is the contribution of infiltrators.

FACTORS FAVOURING IMMIGRATION: - There are numerous factors behind illegal immigration. Illegal immigration of both Muslims and Hindus has different reasons and carries different outcomes. No doubt Hindus of Bangladesh are coming due to religious persecution, alongside this, there are other issues such as socio-political discrimination, economic impoverishment, poor education, etc. All in all, they are in the pursuit of a better living standard. These reasons are also applicable to Muslim immigrants. But there is another factor which is more lethal and resolute than any other option. It is climate change. It has been estimated that by 2050 entire South of Bangladesh will be submerged under the Bay of Bengal. Even now also a great number of refugees are infiltrating into India due to flood-related issues. Bangladesh is a riverine land. This is just the beginning. The situation will worsen as time passes by. Hence, immigration will remain a reality, even if we mitigate other factors. The entire matter will be resolved to a greater extent if we fence our side efficiently. It’s indeed a herculean task to fence the Indo-Bangla border, but a panacea lies in this herculean task.

SOCIO-SECURITY DYNAMICS OF ASSAM: - The Society of Assam is very different from any other society of India. Assamese people are deeply adhered to their language and land, irrespective of religion. There was an incident named “Neille Massacre” in which 2000 Bangladeshi Muslims were killed by the Assamese Muslims in just one night. It shows that the Assamese-speaking population is more inclined towards linguistic inclusivity than religious inclusion. The entire Assam Movement was based on preserving the linguistic and cultural identity of Assamese society. It wasn’t about religious notions. Now, the two major problems which Assam is facing due to illegal immigration are i) Human Security and ii) Radicalization. So far, human security issues are concerned, illegal immigrants, irrespective of religious background, have always been creating social instability. Wherever they reside, plundering the local inhabitants, theft, illegal activities, etc., become common. They gain power from the local political leaders, and in return, they work as voting banks. Sribhumi, Cachar and Hailakandi are the prime sufferers of this issue. Moreover, their improper settlement led to a great ecological disturbance. The next aspect is radicalisation. A good number of Muslim immigrants are hell bent to create anti-national activities in India. Former CM of Nagaland Neiphyu Rio asserted that illegal immigrants are being trained in the NC Hills of Assam, which is quite close to the Assam-Nagaland Border. Many Islamic terrorists or separatist outfits are operating inside Assam. They are even recruiting people from Assam and getting them trained in Pakistan and Bangladesh. A few of them are the Muslim United Liberation Tigers of Assam (MULTA), Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM), Muslim Volunteer Force (MVF), Independent Liberation Army of Assam (ILAA), etc. They have been operational since the 1990s.[1] I often fail to understand why the political establishment prefers to remain indolent on such serious matters. The Government of Assam has successively failed to fix these two main issues of Assam, no matter how many nationalistic slogans they rant every day.

In a nutshell, I will emphasise the report prepared by Lt. Gen. (Retd) SK Sinha on illegal immigration. What I add here is the strategic significance of South Assam in the development of Northeast India and the role it can play in the implementation of the “Act East Policy”. South Assam is the corridor through which the rest of India connects to Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. Disturbance in this region means poor connectivity with the three sisters of the Northeast. Hence, illegal immigration is the foremost hurdle to the full-fledged development of Assam.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.

References: