India’s Next Big Threat? Unpacking the Turkey-Pakistan-Azerbaijan Power Play

Analysis

By Preeti Khenta and Aadya Pasarkar

The Turkey-Azerbaijan-Pakistan nexus is consolidating its presence in the region of the South Caucasus and South Asia. Turkey’s close proximity to Pakistan, both politically and militarily, poses a substantial challenge to India. This alliance, widely known as “Three Brothers”, represents a strategic partnership, characterised by the shared emphasis on Islamic solidarity. Their constant political backing of state-sponsored terrorism has compelled India to perceive it as a strategic threat.

Military ties are a cornerstone of this nexus, raising concerns about indirect support for terrorism due to the involvement of Pakistan in various terrorist attacks around the world. Turkey is the second-largest arms supplier, exporting drones such as the Bayraktar TB2, Songar drones, and MILGEM-class vessels. Pakistan has used these drones to strike against India after the Operation Sindoor, which India views as an indirect support for terrorism. Furthermore, the Turkish defence industry has supported Pakistan’s Air Force and Army. They have been provided with F-16 Fighting Falcon jets by the Turkish Aerospace Industries, and the two countries have been exploring further cooperation in attack helicopters and unmanned aerial systems. Besides, Pakistan has also supplied Azerbaijan with JF-17 Thunder fighter jets in a $1.6 billion deal in 2024. 

During the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (2020), Turkey provided Azerbaijan with critical military support, which was a contributing factor in Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia, while Pakistan provided diplomatic backing and mercenaries' support, as well as ammunition, solidifying the trilateral alliance. This strategic alliance aims to counter regional rivals and reduce dependency on Western arms.

The nexus backing Pakistan diplomatically on the Kashmir issue provides a compelling argument against Turkey and Azerbaijan for endorsing state-sponsored terrorism. Erdogan has continually backed Pakistan regarding Kashmir, raising the matter at the UN and criticising Operation Sindoor. He has called Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif his dear brother and pledged support in both good and bad times, which is viewed as endorsing Pakistan’s narrative.

The 2021 MEMRI report raises concerns regarding Turkey’s strategic partnership with Pakistan, which has involved some unverified claims suggesting that rogue elements in Pakistan’s military may have transferred potential nuclear technology to Turkey. It is widely acknowledged that Turkey has turned a blind eye to extremist groups in Libya and Syria to advance its geopolitical goals, further strengthening the case against this nexus, as they appear to be supporting Pakistan-backed terrorism in India.

The nexus is positioned as a counterweight to nations such as India and Armenia. India has been strengthening its defence ties with Armenia through its indigenous arms exports. India is now the largest arms supplier, exporting anti-drone technology, the Akash-1S defence system, and SWATHI radars. India has responded to the alliance by renewing its relationships with Armenia, Greece, and Cyprus, which undermines its claims concerning Nagorno-Karabakh and Northern Cyprus. By the year 2024, India has emerged as Armenia’s leading arms supplier, alongside joint naval exercises with Greece in 2021 that confront this nexus. This development has provided India with an opportunity to establish its presence in the South Caucasus region and counterbalance the strategic ties between Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Turkey.

Armenia also possesses strategic significance as it acts as a bridge between Europe and Asia. India’s proposition for the Chabahar Port within the North-South Corridor further showcases how this partnership can be implemented in the economic sector and facilitate the integration of regional supply chains.

This alliance is asserting its influence through Pan-Islamic solidarity and creating a façade as the defenders of the Muslim cause. It actively supports issues like Palestine, Kashmir and Nagorno-Karabakh, which created a reputation within the OIC and across Islamic nations as Champions of Islamic Unity and Justice. This constant posturing of Turkey as the leader of the Islamic world against the more neutral or Western-aligned Muslim states, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, has led the Muslim population to perceive these nations as taking a more passive and compromised stance on key Islamic concerns. At the same time, this posturing enhances Turkey's credibility to mobilise soft power among youth, activist groups, and political movements, establishing a more assertive voice in the Islamic world.

Henceforth, the alliance carries significant strategic implications for India, especially when it comes to regional diplomacy, security and influence. The growing coordination between this trio for joint drills and arms development raises concern for India about potential strategic encirclement and technological transfer, which can strengthen Pakistan’s defence capabilities. The nexus poses a direct threat to India’s security, prompting countermeasures such as boycotts and a strategic alliance with Armenia and Greece.

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.