Navigating Uncertainty: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Its Future

Analysis
By Harini Vallal J
As we approach the end of 2024, the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a focal point of international attention characterised by over 1000 days of military engagement, shifting political dynamics that could significantly impact the war, and the underlying humanitarian concerns. The conflict continues with Russia intensifying its offenses in Eastern Ukraine, while both sides launch, intercept, and destroy missiles and drones. According to the RIA state news agency, Russian forces took control of the settlement of Blahodatne in eastern Ukraine. It’s reported that they “…intend to advance from the Novotroitske-Novopustynka area towards Udachne (west of Pokrovsk) and Hryshyne (northwest of Pokrovsk) in order to envelop Pokrovsk from the south and west.”
Role of Western Partners
The recent events, such as the use of ICBM missiles, the allocation of a new aid package by the US to Ukraine, and the implications of the upcoming Trump presidency, highlight the complexities of the situation. The war has not only tested Ukraine’s resilience but has also prompted responses from Ukraine’s allies, particularly NATO and other European countries. The continuous flow of aid and weapons has been crucial in sustaining Ukraine’s defence against Russian aggression. For instance, Ukraine’s 2025 budget plans to cover the $38 billion budget deficit from the aid mainly from its Western partners along with domestic borrowing. Amidst these developments is the newly introduced military assistance package of $988 by the US as the current Biden Administration scrambles to use up all the remaining funds authorised by Congress to support Ukraine before President-elect Trump assumes office. The EU Council has also announced $4.4 billion for Ukraine. NATO, as an alliance, has condemned the aggression and has imposed strict sanctions against Russia to deprive them of their war machine of resources. Additionally, the Council of Europe, NATO’s European component, has agreed to set up an International Compensation mechanism that will use the frozen assets of Russia to reconstruct Ukraine. Germany has become the second largest weapons supplier to Ukraine, only after the US. Germany has also taken in 1.14 million Ukrainian refugees as of February 2024, making it the top recipient in Europe for displaced Ukrainians. German Chancellor Scholz, during his visit at the start of this month, reiterated their support for Ukraine and announced a new package worth $682 million that includes IRIS-T air defence systems, armed drones, etc. However, the main criticism after all the support is that Germany has been too cautious and should have followed Britain, France, and the US in sending the long-range missile. Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner in the upcoming German elections, condemned this policy in his election-time visit to Kyiv and compared it to fighting with one arm tied behind.
The transition to Trump’s presidency has raised concerns about the change in US policies towards conflicts in Europe and West Asia. His America-first approach, coupled with his scepticism towards NATO, left allies uncertain about the US’s role as a security guarantor. Trump has stated that he put an end to the fighting in Ukraine and has mentioned in an interview that his administration would reduce the aid to Ukraine, eventually forcing Kyiv to agree to talk and ultimately pressuring European nations to increase their spending. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte also recently prescribed a push in defence spending by the European countries. After the trilateral meeting between President Zelenskyy, President Macron, and President-elect Trump, Trump has called for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations to “stop the madness.” In response, Russia has expressed its willingness to negotiate, and Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that these negotiations have to be based on the Istanbul agreements of 2022 and on realities of the current battlefield. During the negotiations, President Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine wants a “lasting peace” and not something that Russia would “destroy in a few years.”
ICBM and IRBM
This conflict has also seen the introduction and usage of advanced missile systems such as the intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs). Russia used the missile named Oreshnik, meaning hazel tree in Russian, in response to Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles from the US and UK. The Pentagon said that the Oreshnik missile is a nuclear-capable weapon with hypersonic capabilities. Modelled after the "RS-26 Rubezh" intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), they can travel at speeds of Mach 5 or higher—five times the speed of sound—and are capable of mid-flight manoeuvres, making them much more difficult to track and intercept.
Ukraine has used 6 US-made ATACMS missiles following the reversal of the ban by the US. The British Storm Shadow cruise missile and US-made HIMARS were also used against Russia. These systems, although coming with repercussions, helped Ukraine conduct precision strikes on Russia’s military infrastructure, disrupting its supply lines and command centres. Russia’s attack on Dnipro was intended as a warning to the West, with Kremlin spokesperson Peskov expressing confidence that the US received the message. This attack denotes a significant escalation in the conflict, considering this is the first use of such a powerful weapon.
Future Prospects
The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to evolve amidst fluctuating international dynamics. With substantial aid from its allies, particularly the US, Ukraine remains determined in its defence efforts against Russian offence. However, the impending presidency of Trump raises concerns that his approach may potentially pressure Ukraine into unfavourable agreements in order to put an end to the conflict. NATO has emerged stronger with continuous US support during President Biden’s term, with Finland and Sweden joining the alliance recently. Zelenskyy's aspiration for Ukraine to join NATO represents a component of a broader strategy aimed at ensuring the nation's long-term security. However, this ambition may lead Russia to reject negotiations. In response, Russia has been actively reinforcing its relationships with China, Iran, and other non-Western nations. The conflict has had a significant impact on global energy supplies and has adversely affected the economies of both countries involved. Despite the extensive damage caused by the war, the prospects for a peaceful resolution remain ambiguous, as discussions are complicated by divergent views regarding territorial integrity and security guarantees. Nevertheless, it is evident that the trajectory of this conflict will likely shape global power dynamics for the foreseeable future, influencing international relations and geopolitical stability.
Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.
Harini Vallal J is a final year student pursuing BA in Global Affairs from O.P Jindal Global University. She is interested in the multilateralism, security and strategy.