Tracking the Russia-Ukraine War

Analysis

By Peder Foss

The Russian-Ukraine conflict has persisted for an extended period, during which the Ukrainian armed forces achieved some success in reclaiming territories within Ukraine. However, the subsequent Ukrainian counter-offensive proved unsuccessful for several reasons. Primarily, the Ukrainians inadvertently allowed the Russian forces to regroup following the counter-offensive in the northern vicinity of Kharkiv and in the southern vicinity of Kherson.

Both sides have invested a lot of military resources in capturing and defending small and strategically insignificant cities in the east. The first one was Bakhmut and now quite recently the city of Avdiivka. The war is a war of attrition and reminds us of the Great War (1914-1918) with trenches and every push causing huge casualties for both sides. Russia can sustain the amount of casualties, but Ukraine cannot.

Ukraine has effectively countered the Russian Black Sea navy. However, Ukraine's strategy focuses on denying the Russian navy control over the Black Sea rather than seeking to establish its own control. The replacement of the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces may lead to a shift in Ukraine's approach to the ongoing conflict.

The Air Component

One of the main surprises during this war is how the Russian air force more or less disappeared early. It was not able to achieve air superiority over Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force is still active and conducts air sorties. Another question is; will the arrival of the F-16 fighter planes improve the situation in Ukraine or not? Can the F-16 fighter planes help Ukraine to achieve air superiority over the battlefield? Probably not, to achieve air superiority the Ukrainian air force needs to suppress the Russian air defense, prevent the Russian air force from entering the air space, and to attack ground targets in support of the ground forces. Ukraine needs also to get command and control over their own air assets. Ukraine probably gets support from AWACS planes, these planes can also guide air-to-air missiles fired by the fighter planes, but I doubt NATO wants to do that.

I think it would have been much better for the Ukrainians to ask for more advanced drones, they are cheaper than fighter planes, a lesser risk for the pilots and they are easier to use for the Ukrainians. The Russian Achilles Heel is their logistics and they need to protect their supply lines. It is difficult to say how effective the Ukrainians are in hitting the Russian supplies., but if the Ukrainians are effective to hit the supplies and the infrastructure, the Ukrainians will face a huge problem if they achieve a breakthrough and reach the destroyed infrastructure. But I assume their reasoning is; that we cross that bridge when we reach to it.

Another major aspect of this war is the electronic warfare (EW). Russian forces have deployed smaller EW units along the front line. These units interrupt and distort GPS signals for the Ukrainian artillery systems and other guided munition. Both sides are using EW and it has turned into a chess game of action-reaction.

Crimea

Can the Ukrainians recapture Crimea? Probably not this year, but it also depends on how and what the Russians do if their defenses southern part of occupied Ukraine collapse or not. Crimea is more vulnerable than Donbas. Ukraine can isolate Crimea if they destroy the Kerch bridge. 

The United States

The reliance of Ukraine on military aid, particularly in the form of artillery and air defense, has become a matter of concern due to delays in the provision of aid by the US Congress. The prolonged obstruction of aid not only undermines Ukraine's war effort but also raises questions about the US's commitment to supporting its allies throughout the conflict. This could have far-reaching implications for not only the US and NATO but also for other allies such as Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Israel. The potential withdrawal or reduction of aid to Ukraine may prompt doubts about the US's willingness to defend its allies in Asia, thereby impacting global security dynamics. Despite historical dependencies, European countries have begun to bolster their defense capabilities, although the pace of delivering weapon systems to Ukraine has been sluggish. As uncertainty looms, questions arise about the reliability of the US, particularly given the upcoming presidential election, further adding to the prevailing uncertainties.

Back to Ukraine

The Ukrainians are doing something strange. Ukraine lacks artillery, air defense, and other defense equipment to counter the Russian attacks. Ukraine has a shortage of soldiers, but now they begin to draft all able bodied men into the military service. They should have done it when the war began. Ukraine prevented young men to flee the country, but they did not conscripted all of them. I also believe in imposing military and civilian service for women too. Israel has mandatory military service for both men and women and can they do it so can Ukraine.

The Ukrainian army did something strange when it rotated military units at the front line. The “new” unit deployed to the front line did not stay and left a huge gap in the Ukrainian defense line, which the Russian forces exploited and were able to penetrate about 10km into Ukrainian controlled area. The Russians have the initiative in the war, but I doubt they have the resources to create a major breakthrough and deploy forces deep into Ukrainian-controlled parts of Ukraine. But they are pressing hard along the front line. The Russian arms production is able to replace the losses and when the Ukrainians experience shortages in artillery rounds, air defenses, and most concerning a shortage of service personnel. Russian forces can use their air force to hit ground targets and pushing the Ukrainian air force back from the combat zones. The Russians have a huge advantage in artillery and using it to hit the Ukrainians hard. Artillery has played a vital part of the Russian military doctrine and used artillery to a great effect during the Second World War.

Russian forces have also adapted to the war and is showing signs of learning fast, but they are still using mass attacks and suffering heavy casualties. But they are wasting military resources on targeting civilians. However, the Russians have been targeting the Ukrainian railroads to slow down the military aid from the U.S. That makes military sense, but wasting military resources on cities and other urban areas does not make any sense. The lessons from previous wars show it only increases the anger toward the ones who attack them.

All wars are different, but this war has added something rather new to warfare. Neither side can tactically nor strategically surprise the other side. The information sharing in real time is quite new even if drones have been used in previous wars. Drones have changed the conduct of warfare and changed from mechanized warfare with tanks, mechanized infantry, artillery, close air support, and logistics. Drones changed all that to war with trenches and infantry attacks with huge casualties on both sides.

What I am questioning right now is if the aid package will arrive in time to change anything or is it too late for it to have an impact on the war. Another question is; what happens if the is aid package is not enough to change anything and will the US continue to support Ukraine with the military hardware. Other European countries can do much more and be more efficient with military support.

We will also see if the Russians launch a military offensive soon when the grounds dry up after the thaw. But I doubt they have the resources to follow up in what is called deep operations into Ukrainian-controlled areas to destroy the Ukrainian supply lines. If the Russians launch an offensive, I expect them to launch pincer operations to trap the Ukrainians, quite similar as how the Russians trapped the Germans at Stalingrad and Operation Bagration, but on a smaller scale. 

Disclaimer: This paper is the author's individual scholastic contribution and does not necessarily reflect the organization's viewpoint.