Political Instability in Myanmar: Strategic and Security Implications for India

Occasional Paper 

By - Lt Col Ujjual Abhishek Jha (Retd)

Edited By - Preeti Khenta

Introduction 

The geopolitical landscape of South and Southeast Asia is undergoing a transformation, primarily driven by the prolonged and multifaceted internal conflict in Myanmar. Since the military transfer of power on 01 February 2021, the domestic political instability in Myanmar has escalated into a regional security challenge. The present instability is significantly different from previous military rules, as the ongoing resistance is decentralized, geographically dispersed and possesses greater territorial control. Further, it has questioned the long-standing supremacy of the Myanmar military’s (Tatmadaw).

Significance of Indo-Myanmar Relations

The conceptual underpinning that “geography is destiny” explains the pivotal role of Myanmar in India’s strategic thinking. India shares a 1643 Kms Indo-Myanmar Border (IMB) with Myanmar, which is also its only land bridge to Southeast Asia. This land bridge to Southeast Asia makes it critical for India’s Act East Policy (AEP). Further, the IMB traverses through rugged terrain and deep ethnic trans-border social dynamics, while sharing a border with four Indian States, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. The IMB is not merely a line on a map but actually a living frontier, navigated daily by communities whose linguistic, ethnic, and cultural linkages predate modern nation-states. The Sittwe port in Rakhine State, Myanmar, an essential link for India’s Kaladan Project, provides a strategic maritime gateway for India.

The Indo-Myanmar relations span centuries, rooted in shared cultural, religious and colonial ties. During the Colonial Era, Burma was administered as a province of British India, from 1886 until its separation in 1937.  Post Indian independence in 1947 and Myanmar in 1948, Mr Jawaharlal Nehru, the Prime Minister of India and Mr U Nu, the Prime Minister of Burma, developed a political friendship and were also the core members of the non-aligned movement.

Subsequently, General Ne Win period saw limited diplomatic ties between the two nations. During the uprising of 1998 (8-8-8-8), India initially supported the pro-democracy movement in Myanmar; however, rapidly expanding Chinese influence in Myanmar forced India to change from an idealist to a realist approach and further develop deep ties with the Tatmadaw. This Realistic Approach with the power centre at Naypyidaw, for ensuring Indian geo-political and security interests, acted as a foundation for the initiation of the Look East Policy, which subsequently mutated to the Act East Policy.  The Indo-Myanmar bilateral relations are therefore shaped by societal constraints, geographical dilemmas, diplomatic needs and security challenges.  A comprehensive analysis and an independent perspective on the India–Myanmar dynamics and the enduring instability in Myanmar become important for understanding its impact and a pragmatic way forward for India. 

Historical Political Landscape of Myanmar (Earlier Burma)

The present instability in Myanmar is not an isolated event, but a continuation of old historic pattern that has shaped the country since its independence.   

Colonial Inheritance: Divisive Policy leading to Ethnic Friction

The British administered Burma with the same “divide and rule” strategy as they implemented across the then British Empire. The Bamar (dominant Myanmar population) majority, which inhabited the central lowlands, was governed separately from the Frontier Areas, where the ethnic minorities (to include Karen, Kachin, Shan, Chin, Mon, Rakhine and others) administered their areas with a semi-autonomous arrangement headed by local chiefs and guided by a customary system. During Burma’s independence, these ethnic communities expected a meaningful federal arrangement. Also, General Aung San (Myanmar’s independence hero and father of Aung San Suu Kyi) negotiated the Panglong Agreement in February 1947, with Shan, Kachin and Chins, promising federalism and a right to secession after ten years. However, his assassination disrupted the Panglong Agreement, leading to a persistent conflict between the Tatmadaw and the ethnic communities.  For India, the failure of the Panglong Agreement and resultant conflict created a space for Mizo and Naga groups to gain a foothold in Myanmar. It also led to the proliferation of arms and the subsequent strengthening of the nascent insurgencies in the North East Region (NER) of India. 

The paper was presented at the "National Seminar on Indo-Myanmar Issues and Way Forward" held at Guwahati on 17-18 June 2026. 

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